The Morals Associated with Lotteries

The win-rate looks more to be around 50%. Out of 98 individual entries, 50% of them were wins, 50% were losses. The 98 is a pretty large sample, so the 50% is probably a reliable estimate; unless it just so happens that more winners have posted than losers.

I don't think this is a valid extrapolation for the overall win rate. If it were, then each person would see about half their entries succeed and half fail. Just looking at the percentages in the other thread, there are people with 35% or less success rates, which is a significant enough deviation from 50% that you can't call 50% accurate.

 

I'm not brave enough to write out an entire long list like Mitsuki did in the other thread because I think it would be depressing, but.. between all the entries ever made by the two adults in my house, we have definitely won on significantly less than one-half of the total entries we've put in across all dealers ever.

^ Personally, I feel like International also has a low chance of winning because of how many people enter it. Not only can any country enter into it more or less, but also, VolksUSA announces if you won or not before the International entry period is over. So people who lost from VolksUSA will just go and make an International entry, adding yet another name into the hat when only a limited number of slips of paper can be pulled from that hat.

The win-rate looks more to be around 50%. Out of 98 individual entries, 50% of them were wins, 50% were losses. The 98 is a pretty large sample, so the 50% is probably a reliable estimate; unless it just so happens that more winners have posted than losers.

I don't think this is a valid extrapolation for the overall win rate. If it were, then each person would see about half their entries succeed and half fail. Just looking at the percentages in the other thread, there are people with 35% or less success rates, which is a significant enough deviation from 50% that you can't call 50% accurate.

 

I'm not brave enough to write out an entire long list like Mitsuki did in the other thread because I think it would be depressing, but.. between all the entries ever made by the two adults in my house, we have definitely won on significantly less than one-half of the total entries we've put in across all dealers ever.

 

You're right. Guess I'm looking at this from the wrong angle, sorry! It was too fun thinking about it

I've removed those figures from the lotto thread. Now it'll just maintain the totals and everyones score.

 

Good luck in the stores tomorrow

IMO the trend towards multiple entries is directly correlated with the ever-rising popularity of Dollfie Dreams. When I first got into DD through adopting Rin 3.5 years ago, the USA had a "lottery" but it was one in name only. The number of entrants was few enough relative to the supply of dolls that I can't recall ever hearing about anyone losing.

 

People lost then too. I know of one person complaining lost Rin in that lotto.

 

...flock of sheep.

 

lol...^^

To help pull this thread back on the OP's topic, I will point out that morals associated with lotteries is a difficult question to address. There is no universally-accepted line between moral and amoral, so how are we to answer? I think the only answer can be one of opinion, what fits with each person's value system. Everybody won't agree with each other, and that just means there is no one right answer. This is totally an OK thing.

 

My personal opinions on the OP's questions:

 

What is your opinion on having multiple entries? As in, having a spouse, relative, or friend enter with you to increase your chances.

 

I am not close enough to my family to have them enter for me for something so expensive as Dollfie Dream, but if someone else is close to theirs, then more power to them. Using social capital to get "extra" lottery entries is no different than using any technique you can devise to let you check out quicker in VolksUSA's click wars. In all cases you're just trying to maximize the chances of getting what you want within the confines of the way each system is set up. This is normal competition.

 

What is your opinion on entering the lottery for someone else? For the sake of helping someone else win (you don't necessarily know this person). Do you feel that that just takes away someone else's chances of winning?

 

I most likely would not enter a Volks lottery for someone else, whether I knew them or not, unless I got a really good incentive to do so. I probably already entered once for myself, and I only get the one entry, so to make me give that up would take some doing. I guess entering for someone else would by definition take away my own chance of winning, but I'm not sure that's what the OP was getting at here.

 

What is your opinion on winning two dolls? Is it okay to keep both or is it unfair?

 

I don't understand why this is a question, actually. If I was able to get two dolls (say from a Dolpa and then the AfterEvent), and I wanted two of the same girl, why wouldn't it be OK to keep them? What else would you propose I do with them?

What is your opinion on winning two dolls? Is it okay to keep both or is it unfair?

 

I don't understand why this is a question, actually. If I was able to get two dolls (say from a Dolpa and then the AfterEvent), and I wanted two of the same girl, why wouldn't it be OK to keep them? What else would you propose I do with them?

 

I tried to clarify that question best that I could. I asked that question because of Volks' one entry/doll per customer rule.

 

This was taken from Melty's page on Volks USA:

 

4. Each customer may enter the lottery for one of each item. If we receive more than one entry for the same item by the same person, we will cancel all of that person's entries.

Volks' rule says that each person may put in one entry per individual lottery. It does not say you can only enter one lottery or only get one doll. 'Tis a non-trivial distinction!

Volks' rule says that each person may put in one entry per individual lottery. It does not say you can only enter one lottery or only get one doll. 'Tis a non-trivial distinction!

 

Except that it's implied if not specifically stated. "Each customer may enter the lottery for one of each item", strongly implies that you should only have one chance. Pointing out that it doesn't say you can't enter multiple lotteries is merely a legalism, and a weak one at that.

Except that it's implied if not specifically stated. "Each customer may enter the lottery for one of each item", strongly implies that you should only have one chance. Pointing out that it doesn't say you can't enter multiple lotteries is merely a legalism, and a weak one at that.

It isn't even implied. If it were true that each customer should have one and only one chance, then entering in the lotteries for all 3 of VolksUSA / KL / WLD would be a no-no that gets all your orders cancelled. But this is not the case. You are completely allowed to enter in all three (and also International) if you want to.

I totally agree with what stated by Aquilla.

 

I was wondering... isn't it that Volks Int. checks the IP of the PC from where the entry is done?

So if I have 2 entries done on the same computer they have the chance to see that?

 

I mostly blame Danny Choo and his flock of sheep.

 

here. have all my likes I can ever give.

 

anyway. imho since usa can enter like 2 or 3 entries from diferent distro, i think its acceptable to enter like 3 entries

Except that it's implied if not specifically stated. "Each customer may enter the lottery for one of each item", strongly implies that you should only have one chance. Pointing out that it doesn't say you can't enter multiple lotteries is merely a legalism, and a weak one at that.

It isn't even implied. If it were true that each customer should have one and only one chance, then entering in the lotteries for all 3 of VolksUSA / KL / WLD would be a no-no that gets all your orders cancelled. But this is not the case. You are completely allowed to enter in all three (and also International) if you want to.

 

This is an after-the-fact justification, not a reasoned consideration.

 

The cost of the admin work involved in matching lists would almost certainly cost more than the derived benefit (which is none for the companies involved, each of them wants your business specifically, only volks would benefit). That is what prevents them from matching lists and cancelling orders, not because it's "allowed".

 

I don't have a horse in this race, because I'm not American it doesn't impact on me except indirectly. I just dislike selfish lines of self justification. And no, that's not a deliberate jibe at anyone either.

SchroedingersCat is correct.

It says "Each customer may enter the lottery for one of each item", you as a person are a (like in each/one) customer. If you decide to make multiple accounts or take part in several lotteries, you are still only one real customer. And as one customer it's not allowed to take several slots for a doll. Only question is if it's okay then to take part in the USA and International Lottery since these are actual two different ones at two different times? Or are they counted as one?

 

The fact that Volks might not be able, don't have the time or whatever to check that the lottery entries are really only done once for each living person (i.e. each customer) does not make this rule invalid, it's just badly clarified (see my question above) and badly executed

The cost of the admin work involved in matching lists would almost certainly cost more than the derived benefit (which is none for the companies involved, each of them wants your business specifically, only volks would benefit). That is what prevents them from matching lists and cancelling orders, not because it's "allowed".

Just for the record entering with all three retailers (Volks USA/Kerbey Lane/We Love Dolls) is in fact allowed When I was researching this I asked Bailey (who is an employee of the Volks USA store) about entering with all three of them. There is actually no problem in this and to keep from winning more than one of the same doll you simply have to make sure you're sending the exact same information to each one of them.

 

Kerbey Lane & We Love Dolls are Authorized Volks Retailers. Once they get all their entries in and generate the list of winning names they simply send it to the Volks store via e-mail so they can compare it to their own list to make sure they don't pull the same name more than once. So there actually isn't much more work that goes into matching the lists of names up.

 

And when Volks says:

Each customer may enter the lottery for one of each item. If we receive more than one entry for the same item by the same person, we will cancel all of that person's entries.

They are actually just talking about their own lottery at Volks USA, this in no way applies to entries sent in for the lotteries run by Kerbey Lane & We Love Dolls. They work together to make everyone happy which is really nice for those of us who are able to enter via any of them

 

And Volks International Lottery is a separate lottery from all the ones run in the US so it shouldn't be lumped in together with them since it has its own rules and whatnot~

 

 

I was wondering... isn't it that Volks Int. checks the IP of the PC from where the entry is done?

So if I have 2 entries done on the same computer they have the chance to see that?

They could do that, but at the same time it would be very troublesome to check through every single IP address. Especially since some people could be using the same wi-fi connection or an internet cafe where all the IP addresses would be the same.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Guest

Except that it's implied if not specifically stated. "Each customer may enter the lottery for one of each item", strongly implies that you should only have one chance. Pointing out that it doesn't say you can't enter multiple lotteries is merely a legalism, and a weak one at that.

It isn't even implied. If it were true that each customer should have one and only one chance, then entering in the lotteries for all 3 of VolksUSA / KL / WLD would be a no-no that gets all your orders cancelled. But this is not the case. You are completely allowed to enter in all three (and also International) if you want to.

 

This is an after-the-fact justification, not a reasoned consideration.

 

The cost of the admin work involved in matching lists would almost certainly cost more than the derived benefit (which is none for the companies involved, each of them wants your business specifically, only volks would benefit). That is what prevents them from matching lists and cancelling orders, not because it's "allowed".

 

I don't have a horse in this race, because I'm not American it doesn't impact on me except indirectly. I just dislike selfish lines of self justification. And no, that's not a deliberate jibe at anyone either.

 

But.... they do match lists and cancel orders in the US if you enter through Kerbey Lane, We Love Dolls and Volks and win multiple dolls... they only allow you to win one.

 

I'm confused.

 

I also think it's a slippery slope to start throwing around the phrase, "It Implies"... to me, that's just the reader taking what they want from it.

 

Volks statement is, "Each customer may enter the lottery for one of each item"

 

And while the VolksUSA lottery and the International lottery may be lotteries for the same items, they are distinctly two DIFFERENT lotteries... so if Volks means for people to only enter once for an item in all the lotteries combined, they need to reword their statement... but frankly, seeing as how in the US, Kerbey Lane, We Love Dolls and VolksUSA all work together to ensure one person doesn't get a ton of dolls, I'd say that isn't what they mean... since they are well aware of the practice of entering every lottery for the same item... and even actively participate in policing that.

 

And also... because she posted while I was still typing my entry, 100% yes to everything Innocentsake said.

But.... they do match lists and cancel orders in the US if you enter through Kerbey Lane, We Love Dolls and Volks and win multiple dolls... they only allow you to win one.

 

I'm confused.

 

Me too

 

Still, that would make at least two possibilites for US buyers, if they can enter through the three US based ones and International.

 

And checking names is actually a bad idea, because isn't the address the most important thing? Because else you could apply with your own and for example your husbands/roommates/whatever name and they wouldn't recognize it.

There are so, so many options to trick this system, it saddens me (and still the unfairness that, no matter how you look at it, the US people get more chances. Even when it only comes down to two...does Volks Korea have the same lotteries? Because they should be able to entry their own and International Lottery too then? So confuuused @_@).

But.... they do match lists and cancel orders in the US if you enter through Kerbey Lane, We Love Dolls and Volks and win multiple dolls... they only allow you to win one.

 

I'm confused.

 

Me too

 

Still, that would make at least two possibilites for US buyers, if they can enter through the three US based ones and International.

 

And checking names is actually a bad idea, because isn't the address the most important thing? Because else you could apply with your own and for example your husbands/roommates/whatever name and they wouldn't recognize it.

There are so, so many options to trick this system, it saddens me (and still the unfairness that, no matter how you look at it, the US people get more chances. Even when it only comes down to two...does Volks Korea have the same lotteries? Because they should be able to entry their own and International Lottery too then? So confuuused @_@).

 

Oh, I wasn't saying US buyers don't have two opportunities... but then, so do Japanese buyers, right? Or anyone able to attend a Dollpa?

 

Really, there is always going to be a way to trick the system for people dedicated enough to doing so... and I suspect scalpers are very dedicated people.

Honestly, I don't think Volks has an issue with friends & family entering.

 

Several years ago, when I was fairly new to the hobby, my friend and I both entered for a particular doll that she wanted. We both won. I e-mailed VolksUSA and straight-up told them that I'd entered for a friend, we'd both won, and would it be at all possible to cancel my order? I made it clear that I knew cancellations weren't normally allowed and that I was totally willing to pay if a cancellation was not possible.

 

They said sure, no problem, we'll give you this one-time cancellation but if you do it again in the future, you'll need to pay. They never said they had any issue with me entering on her behalf, never deleted my account, and never stopped me from entering in other lotteries.

 

That was many years ago, so perhaps policy has changed (and maybe VolksJP policy is different), but that's my personal experience with it.

They said sure, no problem, we'll give you this one-time cancellation but if you do it again in the future, you'll need to pay. They never said they had any issue with me entering on her behalf, never deleted my account, and never stopped me from entering in other lotteries.

 

In the end, no matter how much emotional attachment *WE* associate with these dolls, Volks' job is to sell their product and make a profit... so they probably had a bevy of people wanting that doll (as is often the case with Volks limiteds), and therefore had no problem selling her to another person. I would assume as long as it's not a situation where they get stuck with unsellable inventory, or a situation where it's obviously scalpers, they'll be more lenient in how they operate.

 

It's awesome that they were flexible like that with you!

Sorry for the newbyquestion, but what are scalpers?

Sorry for the newbyquestion, but what are scalpers?

Scalpers are people that sell a doll for a very high, marked-up price because they know that someone out there will buy it for that price.

They usually do that with limiteds and often only buy the doll for this very thing: to sell it with a higher price to make profit out if it.

 

Well, at least that's what they are in our hobby.

As far as I know the term comes from the stock market. A scalper there buys cheap stocks, creates a (fake) market around it (tells people that this company is a good one, that the stocks will skyrocket soonly etc.), many people buy the stocks then, the value rises, and the scalper quickly sells his part. Of course the rate goes down quickly then again, but the scalper made profit out of it.

 

(and for you, just in case, the same in German:

Ein Scalper ist jemand der Dolls zu einem niedrigen Preis kauft (z.B. wenn sie frisch rauskommen) und dann kurz darauf für einen viel höheren Preis weiter verkauft. Das klappt vor allem bei limitierten gut da diese ja sobald sie nicht mehr erhältlich sind auf einmal viel mehr wert sind, da schwer zu kriegen. Diese Scalper kaufen die Dolls auch nur aus dem Grund, um schnellen Profit aus verzweifelten Leuten zu schlagen die die Doll vorher nicht kriegen konnten :/ Sieht man auf ebay auch sehr oft)

Thank you for the answer. I tought something like this, but wasn't sure. I watched for the DDs on ebay and was a little bit shocked about the prices.^^

 

You don't need to write the same in German again. I understand this, even my word choice is bad, but thanks for your effort.^^

jr toys house there is evil

Yeah, ebay always seems to have some very outlandish prices on DD girls.

 

Every once in a while, someone will sell one at a decent price, but the ones sold by the stores on there are usually crazy.

jr toys house there is evil

 

Jr toys is owned by a close friend's cousin. They won't give us a discount either. Haha. /off-topic